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6 historical reasons to stay the course
ANTHONY SAGLIMBENE – CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL
MAY 2023
When market conditions are highly uncertain, most investors instinctually – and understandably – become nervous about staying invested. However, history shows that the market is resilient over the long term.
Ultimately, time is on the side of the investor.
Below are six historical points of context that suggest investors should remain invested and unshaken by the challenges of the day:
1. Back-to-back years of stock declines are rare
While the S&P 500 Index declined 18% in 2022, investors should know that such steep declines aren’t common. Going back to 1929, the S&P 500 has only experienced eight calendar-year losses that totaled between 10% and 20%.
That’s a relatively small number of years compared to the sixty-nine calendar years where the Index posted a positive calendar year return. It's also rare that the S&P 500 posts consecutive negative calendar year returns (i.e., 2000 – 2002, 1939 – 1941, and 1929 - 1932). The bursting of the tech bubble, the Great Depression, and World War II were historically significant macroeconomic events that weighed on market sentiment during these periods and hence contributed to the S&P 500 posting a string of poor performance over multiple years.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
2. Declines across stocks and bonds in the same calendar year are very infrequent
With interest rates increasing aggressively in 2022, bond prices posted their worst year in decades. At the same time, slowing growth trends, higher interest rates, and growing recession fears sent stock prices lower as well. However, stocks and bonds historically share a less correlated relationship, with one asset usually helping to offset declines in the other.
As the chart below shows, stocks and bonds are more often higher in the same calendar year than down.
Data: Stocks are represented by the S&P 500 Price Index. Bonds are represented by the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Total Return Bond Index. Data as of 01/31/2023. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
3. Stocks tend to return to form when the Federal Reserve stops raising interest rates
The Ameriprise table below shows the last several Fed rate hiking regimes and the subsequent performance of the S&P 500 Index over a few trailing periods following the first rate hike. History shows stocks tend to decline over the first several months of a rate hiking cycle and then rise in out periods once the Fed has stopped raising interest rates.
A Fed tightening cycle starts from the first rate hike and ends with the last rate hike. Rates are based on Target Fed Fund Rate Upper Limit.
*Represents the current cycles as of 02/08/2023. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
4. Over longer periods, stocks, bonds, and gold outperform inflation
Higher inflation levels can disrupt asset prices, particularly when they rise unexpectedly or swiftly. The Ameriprise chart below shows that stocks, bonds, and gold can underperform inflation over shorter periods. However, over the longer term, stocks tend to outperform inflation, helping investors build wealth and protect purchasing power.
*Gold prices were largely fixed prior to 1971. Data represents 1971 onward.
5. Time in the market beats market timing
Remaining invested through the highs and lows in the market is generally one of the best ways to build wealth over the long term. Missing out on the market's best days by reactively selling can erode an investor's long-term return potential and reduce the probability of investment success. Often, the stock market's biggest down days occur near the market's largest up days.
6. All bear markets have one thing in common – they eventually end
As this chart of the S&P 500® Index illustrates, history suggests that stocks tend to perform well on average once the stock market troughs and starts to anticipate a more prolonged period of recovery. We believe investors should remain invested and take a multi-year view of the investment landscape in periods of elevated uncertainty.
Bear markets defined by a drop of 20% or more from market peak to market trough based on S&P 500 Total Return Index.
Index must have recovered completely (closed above previous peak) before a new bear market can begin.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Your Ameriprise financial advisor is here to help
Contact your Ameriprise financial advisor for further information on investment strategies that can help you feel more confident in weathering periods of uncertainty.
1 1918 - 1956, monthly average of the weekly Standard and Poor's weekly composite price index based on Wednesday's close and as available by the NBER. 1957 through current, monthly closing price of the Standard and Poor's 500 Price Index.
Bonds are based on Professor Robert Shiller database available at econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm where he spliced U.S. Long-Term Government Bonds from 1871 through 1953 and the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond from 1953 onward.
Inflation is based on Professor Robert Shiller database available at econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm where he spliced CPI Warren and Pearson's price index from 1871-1912 to the CPI-U published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics from 1913 onward.
The views expressed are as of the date given, may change as market or other conditions change, and may differ from views expressed by other Ameriprise Financial associates or affiliates. Actual investments or investment decisions made by Ameriprise Financial and its affiliates, whether for its own account or on behalf of clients, will not necessarily reflect the views expressed. This information is not intended to provide investment advice and does not account for individual investor circumstances.
Some of the opinions, conclusions and forward-looking statements are based on an analysis of information compiled from third-party sources. This information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed by Ameriprise Financial. It is given for informational purposes only and is not a solicitation to buy or sell the securities or strategies mentioned.
The information is not intended to be used as the sole basis for investment decisions, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet the specific needs of an individual investor.
There are risks associated with fixed-income investments, including credit risk, interest rate risk, and prepayment and extension risk. In general, bond prices rise when interest rates fall and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer term securities.
The fund’s investments may not keep pace with inflation, which may result in losses.
A rise in interest rates may result in a price decline of fixed-income instruments held by the fund, negatively impacting its performance and NAV. Falling rates may result in the fund investing in lower yielding debt instruments, lowering the fund’s income and yield. These risks may be heightened for longer maturity and duration securities.
The precious metals market is subject to substantial fluctuations including significant and rapid increases and decreases in value from time to time. Investors must be able to assume the risk of such price fluctuations.
Stock investments involve risk, including loss of principal. High-quality stocks may be appropriate for some investment strategies. Ensure that your investment objectives, time horizon and risk tolerance are aligned with investing in stocks, as they can lose value.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
An index is a statistical composite that is not managed. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The S&P 500 Index is a basket of 500 stocks that are considered to be widely held. The S&P 500 index is weighted by market value (shares outstanding times share price), and its performance is thought to be representative of the stock market as a whole. The S&P 500 index was created in 1957 although it has been extrapolated backwards to several decades earlier for performance comparison purposes. This index provides a broad snapshot of the overall US equity market. Over 70% of all US equity value is tracked by the S&P 500. Inclusion in the index is determined by Standard & Poor’s and is based upon their market size, liquidity, and sector.